A technology bubble? History says no.
Huge valuations, impossible salaries, perks that are befitting royalty? Must be a bubble, right? Not so fast.
While there’s a lot of talk about how things are getting out of hand, it seems that nobody is looking at the history of things. In order to be classified as a bubble, it seems to me that we’d need to have a gauge. Thus far, the only marker that anybody seems to be using is their own intuition. While intuition might be great for some things, it’s a terribly poor indicator of fact.
Now let’s look at facts — Numbers.
At the understood peak of the dot-com bubble, March 10th of 2000, the NASDAQ closed at 5048 points. Compare that with today, assuming that this past Friday was the peak of the bubble that we’re supposedly in right now. This past Friday’s close? 2743. If the economic downfall of an entire industry was indicated by an artificially-inflated technologies market, then we’re far from a bubble.
Now it is worth noting that a good deal of the market inflation of 2000 was due to the fact that there were more than 300 IPO’s during the year, the fact that we have only 20 in 2010 keeps a good part of the “danger” out of the public markets. But the story that we’re looking at today goes much deeper than just IPO’s, or the lack thereof.
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